Consumer confidence and a robust overall economy are among the driver U.S. retail sales are…
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released data that shows “modest retail sales gains in June, despite an uneven pace of spending in recent months,” according to Jack Kleinhanz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation.
Based on the data from the U.S. Census Bureau, a news release from the NRF, which is the world’s largest retail trade association, stated that overall, retail sales in June were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month. However, retail sales were up 2.3% year over year in May.
“The path of household spending remains difficult to read,” says Kleinhanz. “Spending has been uneven but remains in good condition notwithstanding the slower pace of payrolls, subdued consumer confidence and price deflation for retail goods. Looking ahead, we expect consumer spending trends to continue even though they will likely be tempered by the softening of employment and income growth. Still-high interest rates are making purchases on credit more expensive and have discouraged new borrowing.”
The NRF’s analysis of the Census data, which excluded automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, revealed that core retail sales in June “were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.3% year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.2% year-over-year for the first six months of 2024, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.”
A recent article by the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor also supported the positive analysis by the NRF and the Census date, stating that online and other non-store sales were up 1.78% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 23.08% year over year unadjusted. As a category, furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.62% month over month adjusted and down 3.26% year over year unadjusted. The same release also stated that overall, “retail sales were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month in June and up 3.07% year over year. That compared with increases of 1.2% month over month and 2.88% year over year in May.”
