ISPA Forecast Sees Wholesale Dollar Growth in 2022, 2023

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The total United States mattress market will enjoy dollar growth this year and next year, but will see a drop in units this year followed by a unit rebound in 2023.

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Those are the spring 2022 forecasts issued by the Statistics Committee of the International Sleep Products Association, which offers industry forecasts two or three times each year, depending on market conditions.

The new forecast envisions wholesale dollar growth of 3% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, with a 3.5% decline in units this year and a 3% unit increase next year.

The forecast includes shipments of U.S.-produced and imported mattresses, stationary foundations and motion foundations.

“The decrease in total shipment units in 2022 reflects the decrease in disposable personal income as inflation eats away at consumers’ earnings and pandemic-induced savings, and federal income support ebbs,” the new forecast report says. “At the same time, the continued increase in inflation supports the increase in mattress prices in 2022, contributing to the growth in the value of total mattress shipments.”

The report says the forecasted increases in dollars and units in 2023 are “supported by the rebound in real disposable personal income and the continued (though muted) recovery in the housing market.”

ISPA says the average unit price for total mattress shipments, which increased by 15.9% in 2021, is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2022.

The ISPA forecast is based in part on an economic analysis prepared by the University of Michigan and input from ISPA’s Statistics Committee.

The forecast model has been updated to include motion foundations, from any source, and imports of foundations with legs, which were not included in previous forecasts due to the limited availability of historical data.