Retailers are entering the year with expectations of continued growth, but at a more measured pace than in recent years.
According to the National Retail Federation’s annual retail sales forecast, total U.S. retail sales are projected to grow between 2.7% and 3.7% year over year. While this reflects continued expansion in consumer spending, the forecast also points to moderating momentum compared with stronger growth periods earlier in the decade. Analysts note that policy uncertainty, interest rate sensitivity, and evolving consumer sentiment are contributing to a more cautious outlook across the retail sector.
The forecast also highlights the continued expansion of nonstore and online sales, which are expected to grow at a faster rate than total retail. Multichannel shopping remains a defining feature of the retail environment, with physical stores continuing to play a central role in fulfillment, discovery, and customer engagement even as digital purchasing increases.
Industry economists note that while consumer fundamentals remain relatively stable, growth is expected to normalize rather than accelerate. Retailers may face a landscape defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational discipline, competitive pricing, and careful inventory management.
For mattress retailers, steady but slower retail growth reinforces the importance of aligning merchandising, promotions, and staffing with more measured demand patterns.
Source: National Retail Federation
