Deloitte’s retail outlook for 2025 looks bright.
London-based consulting, tax and audit company Deloitte released its 2025 Retail Outlook in January, providing insights into what retailers can expect this year.
“The United States has outpaced its advanced-economy peers in its post-pandemic recovery,” says Akrur Barua, associate vice president and economist at Deloitte. “We expect this to continue, with real GDP rising by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.4% in 2025, according to our baseline forecasts. Growth is expected to moderate a bit in 2026 but is likely to hover around 2% until 2029.” Easing inflation through 2029, the low unemployment rate of 4.2% and a forecasted federal funds rate between 3.75% to 4% by the end of 2025 are three factors positively influencing consumers.
However, the outlook notes that “headwinds from fragmented consumers, falling volumes, supply chain issues, increased costs and tech debt” are ongoing challenges. A recent survey of retail executives by Deloitte revealed that most expect the industry to “grow by mid-single digits, on average, in 2025.”
The outlook reveals that “nearly six in 10 retail executives anticipate consumers to value price over loyalty in the year ahead.” Bolstering existing loyalty programs is one strategy to capture price-conscious shoppers in today’s market. Another is providing better digital commerce experiences. The survey also states, “Four in 10 executives plan to engage customers through improved shopping experiences.” Artificial intelligence will be instrumental, applied to targeted ads, personalized in-store displays and shopping assistants. Ultimately, eight in 10 retail executives expect profit margins in 2025 to increase modestly.
To read the full outlook, visit Deloitte Insights.
