The International Sleep Products Association’s Statistics Committee has released its 2024 spring forecast for the U.S. mattress market. Since the mid-1980s, ISPA has published forecasts for the value and volume of U.S. mattress sales. This forecast projects that the total U.S. mattress market (U.S.-produced and imports) is expected to decrease in 2024 but increase in 2025.
Factors informing the forecast are strong employment numbers but persistent inflation, high interest rates and a soft housing market, making it particularly challenging to produce. The 2024 election cycle may also impact the mattress industry due to disruptions to mattress advertisements and sales.
ISPA’s 2023 Mattress Industry Trends Report noted that the quantity of total mattress shipments (including U.S.-produced and imported mattresses and stationary foundations) decreased by 8.0%, and the value of shipments decreased by 2.0%. In 2024, this forecast predicts the wholesale value of mattress shipments will decrease by 2%, and unit shipments will decrease by another 4% compared to 2023.
However, the wholesale value of the total U.S. mattress market, including U.S.-produced and imports, will increase in 2025, thanks to an easing of mortgage rates and an accelerating housing market. Next year, total mattress shipments should grow by 2.5%, and the value of those shipments will increase by 4.5%. The average unit price for total mattress shipments will slow to 2.0% annually in 2024 and 2025. For comparison, AUP increased 4.7% and 1.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
To create this report, a baseline forecast is prepared by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan. The findings are then reviewed by the ISPA Statistics Committee (also the ISPA Forecast Panel) with members that include leading U.S. mattress producers and component suppliers. The Panel supplements the baseline forecast with qualitative data. The forecast also contains timely economic and market analyses provided by Jerry Epperson, of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, Ltd., and Ashraf Abdul Mohsen of Association Research Inc. For more information about how ISPA develops its forecasts, download this PDF.
